 | | Solar wind speed: 309.6 km/sec density: 0.98 protons/cm3 more data: ACE, DSCOVR Updated: Today at 1146 UT X-ray Solar Flares 6-hr max: M1 1833 UT Dec30 24-hr: X1 0414 UT Dec30 explanation | more data Updated: Today at: 2350 UT Daily Sun: 30 Dec 24 Expand: labels | no labels | Carrington Sunspot 3936 has a delta-class magnetic field that poses a threat for X-class solar flares. Photo credit: Honor Wheeler of Wilmington, Kent, UK more images: from Poland; from Austria;
Note: On Nov. 26, 2024, a flood at Stanford University damaged a number of important SDO data servers. Repairs will not be completed until 2025. As a result, for the foreseeable future, Daily Sun images will be coming from readers of Spaceweather.com. Thank you, citizen scientists!  |  | Sunspot number: 209 What is the sunspot number? Updated 30 Dec 2024 Spotless Days Current Stretch: 0 days 2024 total: 0 days (0%) 2023 total: 0 days (0%) 2022 total: 1 day (<1%) 2021 total: 64 days (18%) 2020 total: 208 days (57%) 2019 total: 281 days (77%) 2018 total: 221 days (61%) 2017 total: 104 days (28%) 2016 total: 32 days (9%) 2015 total: 0 days (0%) 2014 total: 1 day (<1%) 2013 total: 0 days (0%) 2012 total: 0 days (0%) 2011 total: 2 days (<1%) 2010 total: 51 days (14%) 2009 total: 260 days (71%) 2008 total: 268 days (73%) 2007 total: 152 days (42%) 2006 total: 70 days (19%) Updated 30 Dec 2024 Thermosphere Climate Index today: 26.16x1010 W Hot Max: 49.4x1010 W Hot (10/1957) Min: 2.05x1010 W Cold (02/2009) explanation | more data: gfx, txt Updated 29 Dec 2024 The Radio Sun 10.7 cm flux: 209 sfu explanation | more data Updated 30 Dec 2024 Cosmic Rays Solar Cycle 25 is intensifying, and this is reflected in the number of cosmic rays entering Earth's atmosphere. Neutron counts from the University of Oulu's Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory show that cosmic rays reaching Earth are slowly declining--a result of the yin-yang relationship between the solar cycle and cosmic rays. Oulu Neutron Counts Percentages of the Space Age average: today: -9.4% Low 48-hr change: -0.2% Max: +11.7% Very High (12/2009) Min: -32.1% Very Low (06/1991) explanation | more data Updated 30 Dec 2024 @ 0700 UT  Current Auroral Oval: Switch to: Europe, USA, New Zealand, Antarctica Credit: NOAA/Ovation Planetary K-index Now: Kp= 2.00 quiet 24-hr max: Kp= 2.67 quiet explanation | more data Interplanetary Mag. Field Btotal: 7.44 nT Bz: 1.10 nT north more data: ACE, DSCOVR Updated: Today at 1147 UT Coronal Holes: 30 Dec 24  Solar wind flowing from this southern coronal hole should reach Earth on Jan. 3-4. Credit: NOAA/GOES-16 | more data Polar Stratospheric Clouds Colorful Type II polar stratospheric clouds (PSC) form when the temperature in the stratosphere drops to a staggeringly low -85C. NASA's MERRA-2 climate model predicts when the air up there is cold enough:  On Dec. 30, 2024, the Arctic stratosphere is cold enough for Type II clouds. | more data. Noctilucent Clouds The southern season for noctilucent clouds (NLCs) is underway!. The first clouds were detected over Antarctica on Nov. 19, 2024. Here is the current NLC map from the NOAA 21 satellite.  Updated: Dec. 27, 2024 An instrument onboard NOAA 21 (OMPS LP) is able to detect NLCs (also known as "polar mesospheric clouds" or PMCs). In the daily map, above, each dot is a detected cloud. As the season progresses, these dots will multiply in number and shift in hue from blue to red as the brightness of the clouds intensifies. SPACE WEATHER NOAA Forecasts | | Updated at: 2024 Dec 30 2200 UTC FLARE | 0-24 hr | 24-48 hr | CLASS M | 80 % | 80 % | CLASS X | 30 % | 30 % | Geomagnetic Storms: Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor storm, severe storm Updated at: 2024 Dec 30 2200 UTC Mid-latitudes | 0-24 hr | 24-48 hr | ACTIVE | 15 % | 40 % | MINOR | 35 % | 30 % | SEVERE | 50 % | 05 % | High latitudes | 0-24 hr | 24-48 hr | ACTIVE | 01 % | 05 % | MINOR | 10 % | 20 % | SEVERE | 85 % | 65 % | | | |  | | | | | | | | This is an AI Free Zone! Text created by Large Language Models is spreading rapidly across the Internet. It's well-written, but frequently inaccurate. If you find a mistake on Spaceweather.com, rest assured it was made by a real human being. | | | GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH (STRONG): A fusillade of solar activity on Dec. 29-30 hurled two CMEs toward Earth. Their arrival on Dec. 31-Jan 1 could spark moderate (G2) to strong (G3) geomagnetic storms. If a strong storm materializes, Northern Lights could descend to mid-latitudes in the USA and Europe, competing with fireworks displays to start the New Year. CME impact alerts: SMS Text  Above: A NOAA forecast model shows two CMEs heading for Earth. [animation] Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter STRONG SOLAR ACTIVITY RESUMES: The quiet has broken. During the past 36 hours, sunspot 3936 has produced two X-class solar flares (X1.1 and X1.5) and a score of lesser M-flares. This morning's X1.5-class eruption (0414 UTC) was so strong it triggered a secondary blast in sunspot 3932 more than 200,000 km away:  This is actually a double X-flare. Both explosions pictured above crossed the X1 threshold. Extreme ultraviolet radiation from the flares ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere, causing a shortwave radio blackout approximately centered on Australia. Ham radio operators in the area may have lost signal below 20 MHz for as much as an hour around 0430 UTC. More flares are in the offing. There are currently five sunspots on the solar disk with mixed-polarity magnetic fields capable of producing M-class to X-class solar flares. NOAA forecasters estimate a 30% chance of X-class explosions on Dec. 30th and the same on Dec. 31st. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter GIFTS FROM THE EDGE OF SPACE: A New Year of balloon launches is about to begin, and we need to buy helium! You can help by puchasing a gift from the Earth to Sky Store. It's filled with unique items that have flown to the edge of space onboard cosmic ray research balloons.  These unique gifts have flown above 99.7% of Earth's atmosphere, experiencing space-like blasts of cosmic rays, extreme cold, and a wild ride parachuting back to Earth after the balloon explodes. Even Amazon doesn't carry items this far out. Don't forget to enter coupon code "SOLARMAX2025" at checkout for a 15% holiday discount. All profits support STEM space weather research. Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store All sales support hands-on STEM education Realtime Comet Photo Gallery Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter Every night, a network of NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com. On Dec 29, 2024, the network reported 7 fireballs. (6 sporadics, 1 December Leonis Minorid) In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies] Potentially Hazardous Asteroids ( PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time. On December 30, 2024 there were 2349 potentially hazardous asteroids.  | Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters: Asteroid | Date(UT) | Miss Distance | Velocity (km/s) | Diameter (m) | 2024 YP4 | 2024-Dec-25 | 19.6 LD | 6.3 | 20 | 2024 YR4 | 2024-Dec-25 | 2.2 LD | 13.8 | 61 | 2024 YD3 | 2024-Dec-25 | 10.9 LD | 20.7 | 30 | 2024 YP | 2024-Dec-25 | 2.6 LD | 6.6 | 14 | 2024 YQ3 | 2024-Dec-25 | 0.3 LD | 10.6 | 3 | 2024 YM7 | 2024-Dec-26 | 2.8 LD | 8.2 | 14 | 2024 YS6 | 2024-Dec-26 | 5.3 LD | 9.1 | 24 | 2024 YF4 | 2024-Dec-26 | 3.2 LD | 9.4 | 21 | 2024 YZ3 | 2024-Dec-26 | 8.4 LD | 10.1 | 42 | 2024 YH | 2024-Dec-26 | 9.6 LD | 10.4 | 31 | 2024 YV4 | 2024-Dec-26 | 6.8 LD | 8.3 | 14 | 2017 YD2 | 2024-Dec-27 | 18 LD | 9.9 | 6 | 2024 YC1 | 2024-Dec-28 | 15.6 LD | 9.2 | 51 | 2024 YQ2 | 2024-Dec-28 | 2.7 LD | 16.2 | 25 | 2024 YA4 | 2024-Dec-28 | 6.6 LD | 9.1 | 14 | 2024 YA5 | 2024-Dec-29 | 0.9 LD | 16.4 | 9 | 2024 YB5 | 2024-Dec-29 | 2.9 LD | 11.3 | 13 | 2024 YH7 | 2024-Dec-29 | 6.1 LD | 26.4 | 36 | 2024 YR6 | 2024-Dec-29 | 0.7 LD | 6.7 | 4 | 2024 YN7 | 2024-Dec-30 | 0.4 LD | 13.4 | 8 | 2024 YB2 | 2024-Dec-30 | 11.4 LD | 12 | 19 | 2024 YE4 | 2024-Dec-30 | 4.3 LD | 13.1 | 10 | 2024 YJ7 | 2024-Dec-30 | 0.8 LD | 8.4 | 5 | 2024 AV2 | 2024-Dec-31 | 6.7 LD | 7.8 | 17 | 2024 YB3 | 2024-Dec-31 | 9.2 LD | 18.1 | 33 | 2024 YS2 | 2024-Dec-31 | 1.3 LD | 4.5 | 8 | 2024 YU7 | 2024-Dec-31 | 8.9 LD | 9.2 | 45 | 2024 YV3 | 2024-Dec-31 | 13.2 LD | 12.9 | 20 | 2024 YY4 | 2025-Jan-01 | 4.4 LD | 4 | 18 | 2024 YF7 | 2025-Jan-02 | 5.1 LD | 13.6 | 25 | 2024 XP10 | 2025-Jan-02 | 19.8 LD | 8.4 | 39 | 2024 YL1 | 2025-Jan-03 | 6.2 LD | 4.8 | 12 | 2024 YL7 | 2025-Jan-04 | 12.7 LD | 7.3 | 31 | 2021 AO4 | 2025-Jan-04 | 6.9 LD | 15.1 | 11 | 2024 YU1 | 2025-Jan-04 | 5.9 LD | 7.3 | 37 | 2024 YT3 | 2025-Jan-05 | 10.8 LD | 7.1 | 18 | 2020 BC6 | 2025-Jan-05 | 9.6 LD | 22.2 | 248 | 2024 YW3 | 2025-Jan-06 | 5.6 LD | 12.3 | 37 | 2024 BM1 | 2025-Jan-08 | 11.5 LD | 9.1 | 22 | 2024 PT5 | 2025-Jan-09 | 4.7 LD | 1 | 12 | 2023 OS3 | 2025-Jan-09 | 19.9 LD | 3.1 | 10 | 2024 YD5 | 2025-Jan-10 | 15 LD | 7.2 | 21 | 2012 UK171 | 2025-Jan-11 | 10.7 LD | 6.4 | 46 | 2022 EE6 | 2025-Jan-13 | 15.5 LD | 8.7 | 45 | 2024 YX5 | 2025-Jan-14 | 11.6 LD | 10.6 | 25 | 2023 OS | 2025-Jan-15 | 16.6 LD | 10.9 | 48 | 2022 CE2 | 2025-Jan-16 | 11.1 LD | 13.3 | 120 | 2024 YF2 | 2025-Jan-17 | 4.4 LD | 4.4 | 17 | 2022 OB5 | 2025-Jan-18 | 8.9 LD | 1.4 | 6 | 2024 WY70 | 2025-Jan-18 | 16.5 LD | 10.2 | 261 | 2024 YQ5 | 2025-Jan-19 | 17.6 LD | 5 | 29 | 2024 YY5 | 2025-Jan-26 | 12.4 LD | 2.4 | 14 | 2022 BX6 | 2025-Jan-28 | 19.7 LD | 14.3 | 24 | 2015 DJ155 | 2025-Jan-31 | 18.6 LD | 9.2 | 56 | 2018 RE3 | 2025-Feb-03 | 15.5 LD | 11.1 | 12 | 2022 AV4 | 2025-Feb-03 | 16.9 LD | 3.4 | 25 | 2002 CC14 | 2025-Feb-04 | 8.4 LD | 12.7 | 39 | 2016 CO248 | 2025-Feb-07 | 13.5 LD | 5.9 | 11 | 2020 GZ2 | 2025-Feb-07 | 17.7 LD | 8.9 | 9 | 2022 PK1 | 2025-Feb-07 | 15 LD | 11 | 33 | 2012 PB20 | 2025-Feb-09 | 3.5 LD | 4.3 | 37 | 2004 XG | 2025-Feb-16 | 15.6 LD | 9.1 | 54 | 2024 UD26 | 2025-Feb-16 | 16.8 LD | 9.3 | 250 | 2014 CE13 | 2025-Feb-18 | 15.2 LD | 18.4 | 55 | 2022 DG2 | 2025-Feb-19 | 11.5 LD | 10.4 | 7 | 2016 AX165 | 2025-Feb-20 | 14.9 LD | 9.2 | 89 | 2015 BK509 | 2025-Feb-25 | 9.4 LD | 14.6 | 119 | 2023 RW3 | 2025-Feb-25 | 7.4 LD | 5.1 | 18 | Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. | Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere | SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Almost once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with sensors that detect secondary cosmic rays, a form of radiation from space that can penetrate all the way down to Earth's surface. Our monitoring program has been underway without interruption for 10 years, resulting in a unique dataset of in situ atmospheric measurements. Latest results (Nov. 2024): Atmospheric radiation is decreasing in 2024. Our latest measurements in November registered a 10-year low:  What's going on? Ironically, the radiation drop is caused by increasing solar activity. Solar Cycle 25 has roared to life faster than forecasters expected. The sun's strengthening and increasingly tangled magnetic field repels cosmic rays from deep space. In addition, solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays, causing sharp reductions called "Forbush Decreases." The two effects blend together to bring daily radiation levels down. .Who cares? Cosmic rays are a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. They can alter the chemistry of the atmosphere, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. According to a study from the Harvard T.H. Chan school of public health, crews of aircraft have higher rates of cancer than the general population. The researchers listed cosmic rays, irregular sleep habits, and chemical contaminants as leading risk factors. A number of controversial studies (#1, #2, #3, #4) go even further, linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death. Technical notes: The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners. Data points in the graph labeled "Stratospheric Radiation" correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Regener and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today. | The official U.S. government space weather bureau | | The first place to look for information about sundogs, pillars, rainbows and related phenomena. | | Researchers call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever. | | 3D views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory | | Realtime and archival images of the Sun from SOHO. | | information about sunspots based on the latest NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary | | current counts of failed and deployed Starlink satellites from Jonathan's Space Page. See also, all satellite statistics. | | Authoritative predictions of space junk and satellite re-entries | | from the NOAA Space Environment Center | | fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong. | | from the NOAA Space Environment Center | | the underlying science of space weather |  | Got a chipped or cracked windshield that prevents you from seeing space weather events while driving? Get windshield replacement from SR Windows & Glass with free mobile auto glass service anywhere in the Phoenix area. |  | BestCSGOGambling is the best site for everything related to CSGO gambling on the web | | These links help Spaceweather.com stay online. Thank you to our supporters! | | | | | | | |  | |  |  | ©2021 Spaceweather.com. All rights reserved. This site is penned daily by Dr. Tony Phillips. | |