CHANCE OF STORMS THIS WEEKEND: NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of minor geomagnetic storms on Nov. 4th when a solar wind stream is expected to envelope Earth's magnetic field. This is not a major stream of solar wind, like the one that sparked bright lights during the last week of October. Nevertheless, Arctic sky watchers should be alert for auroras on Friday and Saturday nights. Free: Aurora Alerts
SPACE WEATHER BALLOONING OVER KANSAS: Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus are continuing to expand the Intercontinental Space Weather Balloon Network. On Oct. 29th, they added a new launch site: Independence, Kansas. Led by a veteran member of Earth to Sky, a team of students and teachers from local schools released their first helium balloon. The payload ascended to the stratosphere, gathering data on temperature, pressure, and cosmic radiation from ground level to 117,000 feet. Here is the view from the apex of the flight:
Students have been reducing data from the flight, and they have found something surprising. X-ray and gamma radiation in the atmosphere over Kansas is stronger than expected. The plot below compares dose rates vs. altitude for Kansas and our regular launch site in central California:
Although the two sites are at nearly the same magnetic latitude, their radiation levels are quite different--much more so than we anticipated based on our previous experience flying balloons at different locations in the USA.
What's going on here? At the moment, we do not know. However, we plan to fly additional balloons from Kansas to confirm and explore these results. Stay tuned.
Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery
UNRULY AURORAS DISOBEY FORECASTS: The forecast for Nov. 2nd called for no auroras. "But here in Tromso, Norway, the auroras ignored the forecast," reports Michael Zawadzki. "The sky erupted for the second night in a row." The luminous outburst was so wide, he needed a fisheye lens to capture it all:
"The past two nights have been truly remarkable," marvels Zawadzki.
What went wrong with the forecast? It didn't anticipate the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). On Nov. 1st and 2nd, Earth passed through regions of negative IMF. Lines of magnetic force wrapped themselves around our planet's magnetosphere and pried open a crack, allowing solar wind to pour in and fuel the unpredicted display.
Lesson learned: At this time of year, when dark wintry skies favor visibility, Arctic sky watchers should remain alert for auroras regardless of the forecast. More snapshots of last night's surprise display may be found in the aurora gallery.
Realtime Airglow Photo Gallery