CHANCE OF STORMS THIS WEEK: NOAA forecasters say there is 70% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on Jan. 18th when a fast-moving stream of solar wind hits Earth's magnetic field. The Arctic light show, however, could begin even earlier. A co-rotating interaction region (CIR) just in front of the solar wind stream is expected to reach Earth during the late hours of Jan 17th. CIRs are transition zones between slow- and fast-moving solar wind. They contain density gradients and shock waves that often spark auroras. Free: Aurora Alerts
The incoming stream of solar wind is flowing from a large hole in the sun's atmosphere. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory photographed the crescent-shaped structure directly facing Earth on Jan. 17th:

This is a "coronal hole" (CH)--a region where the sun's magnetic field opens up and allows solar wind to escape. Material is flowing from this coronal hole at speeds exceeding 650 km/s (1.5 million mph).
COSMIC RAYS ARE INTENSIFYING: A neutron monitor at the South Pole is detecting an upswing in cosmic rays penetrating Earth's atmosphere. Here are the data, courtesy of the University of Delaware's Bartol Research Institute:
This is a sign of changing times on the sun. The solar cycle is shifting from Solar Maximum to Solar Minimum. As the sun's magnetic field weakens, cosmic rays are having an easier time penetrating the inner solar system. Earth is in the cross-hairs of these high-energy particles.
To find out if cosmic rays are also surging in the atmosphere at mid-latitudes, on Jan. 15th, the students of Earth to Sky Calculus launched a space weather balloon from the shores of Mono Lake in central California. At the time of the launch, the lake was wrapped in a cloud of rare fog called "Poconip" that coated every surface with feathery ice crystals:
The payload has landed at 10,400 feet elevation on the slopes of Mount Basin near Bishop CA. National Jr. snowboarding champion Carson Reid, a longtime member of Earth to Sky, will lead the recovery expedition on Wednesday. Stay tuned for results!
Our radiation monitoring program receives no support from corporate sponsors or government grants. Instead, we are crowd-funded. To that end, we offer for your consideration a truly far-out Valentine's gift:
On Dec. 18, 2016, the students of Earth to Sky Calculus flew 30 of these pendants to the stratosphere. You can have one for $69.95--including the rose, which has been pressed for safekeeping. Each order comes with a Valentine's card showing the pendant+rose in flight and telling the story of their trip to the stratosphere.
More out of this world gifts may be found in the Earth to Sky store. All proceeds support cosmic ray balloon flights and STEM education.
Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery
Realtime Airglow Photo Gallery