GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: Minor G1-class geomagnetic storms are possible on Nov. 27th or 28th when a CME is expected to sideswipe Earth's magnetic field. The CME left the sun on Nov. 24th following a filament eruption in the sun's southern hemishere. Even if the CME misses, solar wind plasma shoved toward Earth by the nearby storm cloud could spark Arctic auroras. Aurora alerts: SMS Text
WHERE ARE THE NOCTILUCENT CLOUDS? Something's missing from the South Pole: Noctilucent clouds (NLCs). Normally at this time of year the first puffs of electric blue appear in the mesosphere above Antarctica. But as current data from NASA's AIM spacecraft show, the noctilucent zone is empty:
NLCs are Earth’s highest clouds. Seeded by meteoroids, they float at the edge of space about 83 km above the ground. The clouds form when summertime wisps of water vapor rise up to the mesosphere, allowing water to crystallize around specks of meteor smoke.
The southern season for NLCs typically stretches from November through February. So where are they? To find the answer, Lynn Harvey of the University of Colorado's Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics (LASP) looked at data from NASA's Microwave Limb Sounder. She found a heat wave in the mesosphere:
"The temperature in 2021 is higher than in other years," says Harvey, whose plot compares the temperature for every year since AIM was launched in 2007.
Noctilucent clouds require extreme cold; water molecules won't stick to meteor smoke otherwise. So a heat wave, even a brief one, is enough to delay the onset of NLC season.
University of Colorado distinguished professor Cora Randall makes this prediction: "If I had to put a date on it, I'd say the season will begin on Dec. 1st, but with a large uncertainty. A more conservative statement would be stay tuned!"
Realtime Noctilucent Cloud Photo Gallery
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Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery
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