WEEKEND AURORA WATCH: Minor G1-class geomagnetic storms, which began on Feb. 4th, could continue on Feb. 5th and 6th as Earth enters a stream of high-speed solar wind. The gaseous material is flowing from an equatorial hole in the sun's atmosphere. Arctic sky watchers should be alert for bright auroras this weekend. Geomagnetic storm alerts: SMS Text.
SOLAR CYCLE 25--A DIFFERENT POINT OF VIEW: For much of the past year, the space weather community has been buzzing about the strong performance of young Solar Cycle 25 (SC25). Every month, sunspot numbers seem to blow past official predictions. This means we're about to have a strong Solar Maximum, right?
"Not so fast," cautions Dr. Ron Turner, an analyst at the ANSER research institute in Virginia. "It may be too early to anticipate a strong solar cycle."
This graph shows why Turner is skeptical:
Solar Cycle 25 is doing something interesting. It is mimicking old Solar Cycle 24 (SC24). "I took sunspot numbers from the early years of SC24 (the red dashed line) and overlaid them on SC25," says Turner. "They're an almost perfect match."
This is significant because Solar Cycle 24 went on to become the weakest solar cycle in a century. Its hot start did not lead to a strong maximum. Turner isn't saying that Solar Cycle 25 will likewise be a dud. But, rather, "these early sunspot numbers are not enough to guarantee a strong cycle."
Déjà vu, anyone?
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AURORAS IN THE USA: On Feb. 3rd, a crack opened in Earth's magnetic field. Solar wind rushed in to fuel a display of auroras across several northern-tier US states. Kevin Palmer sends this picture from Sheridan, Wyoming:
"I had low expectations of seeing any auroras, but they became very bright at 1:30AM MST," says Palmer. "The view was worth enduring the subzero temperatures." Auroras were also sighted in Minnesota and Washington.
The crack was an after-effect of the CME impact on Feb. 1st. South-pointing magnetic fields in the wake of a CME often pry open such cracks, leading to auroras hours to days after the CME passes.
Note: Subscribers to our Space Weather Alert Service (Pro Plan) received an instant text message when the crack opened, allowing them to rush out and catch the show.
Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery
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VALENTINE'S GIFTS FROM THE EDGE OF SPACE: Does your sweetheart love space? Shop the Earth to Sky Store for their perfect Valentine's gift. All items have flown to the stratosphere on board cosmic ray research balloons--and from now until Feb. 14th, everything is 10% off:
Each purchase comes with a greeting card showing the item in flight and telling the story of its journey to the stratosphere and back again. Don't forget to enter the coupon code "ILOVESPACE" for your Valentine's discount!
Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
All sales support hands-on STEM education