UNEXPECTED GEOMAGNETIC STORM: Earlier today, Oct. 26th, a crack opened in Earth's magnetic field, triggering an unexpected G1-class geomagnetic storm. The episode lasted for approximately 5 hours (0800 UT -- 1300 UT) and probably ignited auroras around the Arctic Circle, although none has been reported yet. Aurora alerts: SMS Text
NOAA FORECASTS QUICKER, STRONGER SOLAR MAX: When Solar Cycle 25 began in 2020, leading forecasters thought it would be weak and slow to develop. Fast forward three years: NOAA is now predicting a quicker, stronger solar cycle. The revised forecast, published yesterday, shows Solar Max coming sometime between January and October 2024:
NOAA's original prediction for Solar Cycle 25 is shown in pink (
), the broad band indicating the uncertainty of the forecast. It has become clear in recent years that the original prediction was too low, which prompted NOAA to issue a new one. The magenta line (
) traces the new forecast, and takes into account recent high sunspot counts.
Uncertainties in the new forecast are bounded by different shades of magenta. There is roughly a 25% chance that the smoothed sunspot number will fall within the dark-shaded region; a 50% chance it will fall in the medium-shaded region; and a 75% chance it will fall in the lightest of the shaded regions.
If this new forecast is correct, Solar Cycle 25 could land in the ballpark of Solar Cycle 23, which peaked in 2000-2001, and produced the famous Halloween Storms of 2003. However, the odds still favor Solar Cycle 25 being a bit weaker than Solar Cycle 23. Either way, next year's Solar Max could be potent.
NOAA plans to update this new forecast every month. Check out their Space Weather Prediction Testbed for the latest prediction.
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CHAINSAWING FOR COSMIC RAYS: We found it. Or at least part of it. A cosmic ray balloon payload buried a year ago in deep snow over Echo Lake in California's Eastern Sierra has been located. All it took was the correct tool. Sound on:
Normally, if something is buried in snow, you dig it up using a shovel. In this case a chainsaw was required. The whole area around the payload's landing site at 12,000 ft altitude is re-glaciating after the snowiest winter in 100 years. Metal shovels bounce off the almost rock-hard snow.
Amazingly, part of the payload was almost directly below our first cut into the ice. While we located the balloon's parachute and GPS trackers, the radiation sensors are still missing. After a closer look at the GPS data we believe we know where they are. This means we're going back again--our 6th expedition to Echo Lake over the past year. Stay tuned!
HANDMADE ANNULAR SOLAR ECLIPSE PENDANT: This pendant has touched the shadow of the Moon. The students of Earth to Sky Calculus launched it to the stratosphere on Oct. 14, 2023, during the annular solar eclipse. The handmade pendant was 78,500 feet high when the Moon's shadow arrived and wrapped it in a cool twilight-like darkness:
You can have it for $129.95. The pendant left Earth from Nevada's Valley of the Moon, a remote area filled with the scent of sage and herds of wild horses. Indeed, no fewer than three mustang families approached the launch team during the eclipse to see what was going on. It was a magical experience.
The students are selling space pendants to pay the helium bill for their cosmic ray ballooning program. Each one comes with a greeting card showing the jewelry in flight and telling the story of its trip to the stratosphere and back again.
Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
All sales support hands-on STEM education
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