GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH--CONTINUED: NOAA forecasters remain confident that a CME will graze Earth's magnetic field on June 1st. It was hurled into space by an X1.4-flare on May 29th. The glancing blow could cause G2-class geomagnetic storms. CME impact alerts: SMS Text
X-FLARE AFTER X-FLARE AFTER X-FLARE: Exploding like popcorn, sunspot AR3664 (a.k.a. AR3697) produced three X-flares on May 31st and June 1st. The latest, a long-duration X1-class event, hurled a halo CME almost directly toward Earth.
Official forecast models are not yet available for the incoming CME. SOHO coronagraph data are still too fragmentary. However, we can make a good guess for the ETA: June 4th. The impact could produce strong G3-class geomagnetic storms.
Sunspot AR3664 has been decaying for days. What makes it so active? This magnetic map provides the answer:
Within the sunspot's primary core, two oppositely-signed magnetic poles are crowded together, + vs. -. When this happens, magnetic recombination can cause very powerful explosions even from a sunspot that's falling apart. NOAA forecasters estimate a 35% chance of X-flares and a 75% chance of M-flares on June 1st. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text
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