CHANCE OF FLARES TODAY: Since the week began, sunspot 3981 has produced 19 M-class solar flares. It's hyperactive. NOAA forecasters say there's a 20% chance that the sunspot could produce an X-flare on Feb. 5th, topping all of its previous explosions. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text.
'UNPRECEDENTED' STARLINK REENTRIES: What goes up, must come down--which could be a problem when you're launching thousands of satellites. Since 2018, SpaceX has placed more than 7,000 Starlink satellites into Earth orbit, and now they are starting to come down. In January alone, more than 120 Starlinks deorbited, creating a shower of fireballs.
"The sustained rate of daily reentries is unprecedented," says Jonathan McDowell, an astronomer at the Harvard Center for Astrophysics who tracks satellites. "They are retiring and incinerating about 4 or 5 Starlinks every day."
Planners have long known this would happen. First generation (Gen1) Starlink satellites are being retired to make way for newer models. "More than 500 of the 4700 Gen1 Starlinks have now reentered," says McDowell.
When Starlinks reenter, they disintegrate before hitting the ground, adding metallic vapors to the atmosphere. A study published in 2023 found evidence of the lingering devris. In February 2023, NASA flew a WB-57 aircraft 60,000 feet over Alaska to collect aerosols. 10% of the particles contained aluminum and other metals from the "burn-up" of satellites.
Right: NASA's WB-57 high altitude airplane. [more]
What we're observing is a giant uncontrolled experiment in atmospheric chemistry. The demise of just one Gen1 Starlink satellite produces about 30 kilograms (66 pounds) of aluminum oxide, a compound that eats away at the ozone layer. A new study finds these oxides have increased 8-fold between 2016 and 2022, and the recent surge is increasing the pollution even more.
On the bright side, each reentry produces a beautiful fireball--and the odds are increasing that you'll see one. Visit the Aerospace Corporation for reentry predictions, and submit your photos here.
Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery
Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter
THERE'S A COMET IN MY CHIMNEY! Comet ATLAS (C/2024 G3) reminds many observers of Comet McNaught (C/2006 P1), another sungrazer which wowed southern sky watchers in 2007. Ian Cooper of Glen Oroua, New Zealand, caught both of the famous comets in his chimney:
"Comet ATLAS has been like a smaller, fainter version of its predecessor from 18 years ago, Comet McNaught," says Cooper. "The timing and positioning have been very close between the two. Last night, Comet ATLAS produced a déjà vu moment for me. Just when I was having trouble finding the comet, there it was, stuck in my chimney, just like McNaught all those years ago!"
Realtime Comet ATLAS Photo Gallery
Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter
24K SPACE ROSE FOR VALENTINE'S DAY: On Jan. 24, 2025, the students of Earth to Sky Calculus launched a cosmic ray balloon to the stratosphere. This 24K Space Rose went along for the ride:
You can have it for $127.75. At the apex of the flight, the gold-dipped and gilded bloom was 115,823 feet above the Sierra Nevada mountains of central California, touching the edge of space. It comes with a greeting card showing the flower in flight, and telling the story of its journey to the stratosphere and back again.
Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
All sales support hands-on STEM education
Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery
Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter