| | Switch to: Europe, USA, New Zealand, Antarctica Credit: NOAA/Ovation Planetary K-index Now: Kp= 4 unsettled 24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled explanation | more data Interplanetary Mag. Field Btotal: 10.9 nT Bz: 9.6 nT north more data: ACE, DSCOVR Updated: Today at 2345 UT Coronal Holes: 15 Nov 21 Solar wind flowing from this southern coronal hole could reach Earth on Nov. 17-18. Credit: SDO/AIA Noctilucent Clouds The northern hemisphere season for noctilucent clouds appears to be over. NASA's AIM spacecraft detected no evidence of NLCs around the north pole on Aug. 29th. Switch view: Europe, USA, Asia, Polar Updated at: SPACE WEATHER NOAA Forecasts | | Updated at: 2021 Nov 15 2200 UTC FLARE | 0-24 hr | 24-48 hr | CLASS M | 01 % | 01 % | CLASS X | 01 % | 01 % | Geomagnetic Storms: Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor storm, severe storm Updated at: 2021 Nov 15 2200 UTC Mid-latitudes | 0-24 hr | 24-48 hr | ACTIVE | 30 % | 30 % | MINOR | 05 % | 05 % | SEVERE | 01 % | 01 % | High latitudes | 0-24 hr | 24-48 hr | ACTIVE | 15 % | 15 % | MINOR | 30 % | 30 % | SEVERE | 35 % | 35 % | | | | | | | | | | | | Lights Over Lapland has a full catalogue of exciting adventures in Abisko National Park, Sweden! Check out our daytime and evening activities and book your adventure! | | | A DENSE STREAM OF SOLAR WIND: Unexpectedly, Earth is entering a slow-moving but dense stream of solar wind on Nov. 15th. Relatively strong magnetic fields in the stream are opening a crack in Earth's magnetosphere, setting the stage for possible Arctic auroras. Aurora alerts: SMS Text. THE SOUTH POLE OF MARS: "Yes, this is a real picture of the planet Mars," says Peter Rosén of Stockholm, Sweden. But it didn't come from a spacecraft. Rosén created this view of the Martian south pole using images taken by amateur astronomers on Earth: "I downloaded the best images of Mars from last year's opposition from ALPO Japan and spent 4 days stitching them together into a polar stereographic projection," he explains. "I have mapped the pole so that it shows significantly more than just down to the equator because I think it enhances the visual experience." "The pictures were taken by some of the world's best amateur planetary photographers, but some have used professional telescopes such as the 1m telescope at Pic-du-Midi or the 1m Chilescope," he continues. "The images with the best resolution were taken on Oct. 24, 2020, at the observatory at Calern in the south of France, which consists of two 1-meter telescopes with newly polished mirrors. According to the photographers, they reached a resolution of 0.14 seconds of arc. These are probably the sharpest images ever taken of Mars from Earth and even reveal details in the polar ice cap." Rosén used the same images to create an equatorial view: Take it for a spin. Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter THE BRIGHTEST COMET OF 2021: Comet Leonard (C/2021 A1) is approaching Earth for a close (35 million km) encounter on Dec. 12th. Last night, en route, it passed by spiral galaxy NGC 4395. Michael Jaeger of Martinsberg, Austria, caught the two in the same frame: Comet Leonard is currently shining like a 9th magnitude star in the northern constellation Canes Venatici (the Hunting Dogs). In the weeks ahead, its brightness will increase sharply, perhaps more than 100 fold. Most forecasters agree that next month Comet Leonard will reach magnitude +4, an easy target for small telescopes and visible to the naked eye from dark-sky sites. If current trends hold, Leonard will soon become the brightest comet of 2021. Resources: light curve, current coordinates; observing tips; photo gallery. THE NOCTILUCENT WOLF PENDANT: The strongest geomagnetic storm of Solar Cycle 25 was underway on Nov. 4th when the students of Earth to Sky Calculus launched a cosmic ray research balloon. This noctilucent wolf pendant went along for the ride: You can have it for $99.95. The students are selling these pendants to support their cosmic ray ballooning program. It's "noctilucent" because it glows in the dark following exposure to solar ultraviolet radiation. Each pendant comes with a greeting card showing the necklace in flight and telling the story of its journey to the edge of space and back again. Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store All sales support hands-on STEM education Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter Every night, a network of NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com. On Nov 15, 2021, the network reported 14 fireballs. (7 sporadics, 4 Leonids, 3 northern Taurids) In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies] Potentially Hazardous Asteroids ( PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time. On November 15, 2021 there were 2238 potentially hazardous asteroids. | Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters: Asteroid | Date(UT) | Miss Distance | Velocity (km/s) | Diameter (m) | 2021 VR2 | 2021-Nov-10 | 1.8 LD | 9.9 | 15 | 2017 WG14 | 2021-Nov-10 | 18.6 LD | 11.6 | 45 | 2021 VY8 | 2021-Nov-10 | 16.2 LD | 13.4 | 21 | 2021 VU4 | 2021-Nov-10 | 0.3 LD | 16.1 | 8 | 2021 VN10 | 2021-Nov-10 | 2.4 LD | 11 | 8 | 2021 VC12 | 2021-Nov-11 | 16.6 LD | 7.4 | 21 | 2021 UA5 | 2021-Nov-11 | 11.2 LD | 9.3 | 24 | 2021 VH2 | 2021-Nov-11 | 2.9 LD | 2.3 | 7 | 2021 VW6 | 2021-Nov-11 | 1.3 LD | 17 | 6 | 2021 VM12 | 2021-Nov-11 | 13.8 LD | 7.4 | 25 | 2021 VY7 | 2021-Nov-11 | 0.8 LD | 12.4 | 5 | 2021 UE10 | 2021-Nov-12 | 15 LD | 5 | 19 | 2007 VD138 | 2021-Nov-12 | 16 LD | 7.7 | 44 | 2021 VC7 | 2021-Nov-12 | 0.5 LD | 18.6 | 8 | 2021 VR5 | 2021-Nov-12 | 1 LD | 14.7 | 15 | 2021 VU8 | 2021-Nov-12 | 7.3 LD | 13.4 | 17 | 2021 UX8 | 2021-Nov-12 | 19 LD | 6.3 | 25 | 2021 VY4 | 2021-Nov-12 | 2.3 LD | 13.8 | 18 | 2004 UE | 2021-Nov-13 | 11.1 LD | 13.2 | 186 | 2021 UO3 | 2021-Nov-13 | 4.6 LD | 6.6 | 16 | 2021 VQ2 | 2021-Nov-13 | 12.9 LD | 7.2 | 14 | 2021 UM9 | 2021-Nov-13 | 4.6 LD | 11.2 | 59 | 2021 VJ8 | 2021-Nov-13 | 5.6 LD | 8.5 | 15 | 2021 VA3 | 2021-Nov-14 | 13 LD | 8.2 | 17 | 2021 VG3 | 2021-Nov-15 | 10.2 LD | 11.4 | 19 | 2016 VR | 2021-Nov-15 | 8.2 LD | 8.7 | 19 | 2021 VM1 | 2021-Nov-15 | 9.2 LD | 14.6 | 23 | 2010 VK139 | 2021-Nov-15 | 6.1 LD | 13.9 | 65 | 2019 VL5 | 2021-Nov-15 | 8.5 LD | 8.1 | 24 | 2021 VQ6 | 2021-Nov-16 | 8.5 LD | 10.4 | 26 | 2021 VP8 | 2021-Nov-16 | 12.3 LD | 5.5 | 20 | 2021 VS5 | 2021-Nov-17 | 3.6 LD | 8.5 | 19 | 2021 VR6 | 2021-Nov-17 | 7.6 LD | 9 | 17 | 2021 VK10 | 2021-Nov-18 | 5.9 LD | 14.3 | 21 | 2021 VC9 | 2021-Nov-19 | 7 LD | 7.3 | 14 | 2021 VJ11 | 2021-Nov-19 | 6.8 LD | 10.6 | 25 | 2021 VR | 2021-Nov-19 | 15.5 LD | 13.3 | 73 | 2016 JG12 | 2021-Nov-20 | 14.4 LD | 7.5 | 111 | 2021 TR15 | 2021-Nov-20 | 11.9 LD | 7 | 42 | 2021 VP10 | 2021-Nov-20 | 2 LD | 8.3 | 9 | 2021 KH2 | 2021-Nov-21 | 19.3 LD | 6.5 | 31 | 2021 VW5 | 2021-Nov-21 | 15.6 LD | 3.4 | 17 | 3361 | 2021-Nov-21 | 15.1 LD | 8.1 | 504 | 2021 VL16 | 2021-Nov-23 | 14.3 LD | 8.4 | 19 | 2014 WF201 | 2021-Nov-24 | 13.2 LD | 5.5 | 27 | 2021 VR4 | 2021-Nov-25 | 2.1 LD | 7.7 | 17 | 2009 WB105 | 2021-Nov-25 | 15.1 LD | 18.9 | 71 | 2021 VF11 | 2021-Nov-25 | 18.6 LD | 1.3 | 14 | 2019 BB5 | 2021-Nov-25 | 18.8 LD | 8.3 | 16 | 2021 VM | 2021-Nov-27 | 9.4 LD | 8.9 | 30 | 2021 VO12 | 2021-Nov-28 | 7.3 LD | 13.5 | 52 | 1994 WR12 | 2021-Nov-29 | 16.1 LD | 8.8 | 123 | 2021 UP4 | 2021-Dec-04 | 13.9 LD | 8.3 | 53 | 2021 VX7 | 2021-Dec-06 | 14.8 LD | 6.2 | 41 | 4660 | 2021-Dec-11 | 10.3 LD | 6.6 | 759 | 2019 XQ1 | 2021-Dec-13 | 14.1 LD | 9.1 | 30 | 2021 VT6 | 2021-Dec-14 | 7.7 LD | 6.9 | 53 | 2004 YC | 2021-Dec-15 | 18.4 LD | 8.1 | 27 | 163899 | 2021-Dec-17 | 14.2 LD | 5.6 | 1093 | 2021 LX3 | 2021-Dec-18 | 19.7 LD | 6.5 | 124 | 2016 YY10 | 2021-Dec-21 | 11.3 LD | 9.2 | 23 | 2017 XQ60 | 2021-Dec-21 | 13.7 LD | 15.7 | 47 | 2016 TR54 | 2021-Dec-24 | 16.9 LD | 15.5 | 135 | 2018 AH | 2021-Dec-27 | 11.9 LD | 12.7 | 112 | 2017 AE3 | 2021-Dec-29 | 9.3 LD | 19.1 | 155 | 2014 YE15 | 2022-Jan-06 | 19.3 LD | 6.4 | 8 | 2020 AP1 | 2022-Jan-07 | 4.6 LD | 5.7 | 4 | 2013 YD48 | 2022-Jan-11 | 14.6 LD | 14.8 | 107 | Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach. | Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere | SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Almost once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with sensors that detect secondary cosmic rays, a form of radiation from space that can penetrate all the way down to Earth's surface. Our monitoring program has been underway without interruption for 6 years, resulting in a unique dataset of in situ atmospheric measurements. Latest results: Our most recent flight on June 25, 2021, confirms a trend of decreasing cosmic radiation: Cosmic ray dose rates peaked in late 2019, and have been slowly declining ever since. This makes perfect sense. Solar Minimum was in late 2019. During Solar Minimum the sun's magnetic field weakens, allowing more cosmic rays into the solar system. We expect dose rate to be highest at that time. Now that Solar Minimum has passed, the sun is waking up again. Solar magnetic fields are strengthening, providing a stiffer barrier to cosmic rays trying to enter the solar system. The decline of cosmic radiation above California is a sign that new Solar Cycle 25 is gaining strength. .Who cares? Cosmic rays are a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. They can seed clouds, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. According to a study from the Harvard T.H. Chan school of public health, crews of aircraft have higher rates of cancer than the general population. The researchers listed cosmic rays, irregular sleep habits, and chemical contaminants as leading risk factors. Somewhat more controversial studies (#1, #2, #3, #4) llink cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death. En route to the stratosphere, our sensors also pass through aviation altitudes: In this plot, dose rates are expessed as multiples of sea level. For instance, we see that boarding a plane that flies at 25,000 feet exposes passengers to dose rates ~10x higher than sea level. At 40,000 feet, the multiplier is closer to 50x. The higher you fly, the more radiation you will absorb. Technical notes: The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners. Data points in the first graph ("Stratospheric Radiation") correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Regener and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today. | The official U.S. government space weather bureau | | The first place to look for information about sundogs, pillars, rainbows and related phenomena. | | Researchers call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO is the most advanced solar observatory ever. | | 3D views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory | | Realtime and archival images of the Sun from SOHO. | | information about sunspots based on the latest NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary | | from the NOAA Space Environment Center | | fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! 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